往期回顾

Golden上期免费推荐狂热受让顺利打出！近44中27！此前命中4.4倍胜分差实单！近173中96！胜分差屡次有收获！今天锁定WNBA季后赛！水星VS自由！

相比公推，Golden的重点推荐昨天遗憾未能打出！此前命中8.3倍胜分差实单！叠加近期免费的实单命中，Golden栏目是过去212期有134期是有胜分差实单命中，累计中了193单！今天Golden重心将主推1场WNBA季后赛！【天猫VS女武神】的让分方向！还有彩蛋！记得留意！长按识别下方二维码或点击文末【阅读原文】即可看到！

今日主力场次

周三302 天猫VS女武神

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今日免费分析

08:00 WNBA 水星VS自由（主）

推荐：水星 最多输2分

竞篮：周三301 让分主负

胜分差：重点推荐获取

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菲尼克斯水星目前被逼到悬崖边，只有赢球才能把系列赛拖到第三场。从数据看，她们近18场赢下11场，状态并非完全低迷。水星场均得到69分，投篮命中率只有32.5%，但罚球线表现稳定，高达81.3%。卡莱亚·库珀和阿丽莎·托马斯依然是进攻核心，德万娜·博纳也保持两位数输出。首战中，萨巴利、库珀和马卡尼的手感都低迷，但即便如此，水星依旧有机会抢下比赛，这说明她们的抗衡能力仍在。

纽约自由人则希望完成横扫，连续第三年进入次轮。她们已经豪取四连胜，场均得分76分，投篮命中率41.7%，在攻防两端都比水星更均衡。娜塔莎·克劳德和布里安娜·斯图尔特是关键火力，尤其是克劳德场均23分的爆发力。但值得注意的是，自由人本赛季虽然主场强势，但斯图尔特的健康状况存在隐患，这给球队的稳定性打上了问号。一旦她无法全力出战，纽约的优势恐怕没那么稳固。

从对位情况来看，水星首战其实已经展现出一定的韧性，即便核心得分手手感不佳，也差点拿下比赛。考虑到她们在进攻端的回暖空间，加上整体罚球表现的可靠性，本场至少不会轻易崩盘。自由人固然是主场热门，但在缺少完全健康的阵容支撑下，很难彻底拉开分差。因此，这一战更合理的预期是水星最多输2分，依旧有机会把悬念带回到下一场。

原文：

The Phoenix Mercury are currently on the brink of collapse, requiring only a win to force a Game 3. Statistically, they've won 11 of their last 18 games, suggesting they're not completely in a slump. The Mercury averages 69 points per game, shooting only 32.5% from the field, but maintains a solid 81.3% free throw rate. Kaleiya Cooper and Alyssa Thomas remain the core of the offense, with Dewanna Bonnar also maintaining double-digit output. In the first game, Sabally, Cooper, and Makani all struggled, but the Mercury still had a chance to win, demonstrating their continued competitive potential.

The New York Liberty are hoping to complete a sweep and advance to the second round for the third consecutive year. They've won four straight games, averaging 76 points per game on 41.7% shooting, and are more balanced on both ends of the floor than the Mercury. Natasha Crowder and Brianna Stewart are key contributors, with Crowder in particular averaging 23 points per game. However, it's worth noting that while the Liberty have been strong at home this season, Stewart's health remains a concern, raising questions about the team's stability. If she's unable to play at full strength, New York's advantage may be less secure.

In terms of matchup, the Mercury showed some resilience in their opening game, nearly winning even with their key scorer struggling. Considering their offensive potential and their overall reliability from the free throw line, they shouldn't collapse easily in this matchup. While the Liberty are certainly home favorites, without a fully healthy roster, it's difficult for them to completely open up the points gap. Therefore, a more reasonable expectation for this matchup is that the Mercury will lose by a maximum of two points, still allowing them to bring the suspense back to the next game.