往期回顾

Golden上期免费WNBA推荐飞马让分顺利打出！而且命中4倍胜分差实单！近120中64！胜分差屡次有收获！今天继续锁定WNBA的比赛！水星VS自由！

相比公推，Golden的重点推荐康太阳受让再度打出！而且命中3.6倍胜分差实单！叠加近期免费的实单命中，Golden栏目是过去157期有105期是有胜分差实单命中，累计中了154单！今天Golden重心将主推1场NBA赛事！【雷霆VS步行者】的让分方向！记得留意！长按识别下方二维码或点击文末【阅读原文】即可看到！

今日主力场次

周四301 雷霆VS步行者

除了主力分析出击，Golden篮球的包场优惠也在限时进行中！大家扫下方维码，即可直接办理来自Golden篮球的NBA包场服务（5场）！限时优惠！过时不候哦！

今日免费分析

07:00 WNBA 水星VS自由（主）

推荐：水星 不输10分以上

竞篮：周四302 让分主负

胜分差：主胜6-10、主胜1-5分

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自由人本赛季的统治力毋庸置疑，10 胜 1 负的战绩与主场 6 战全胜的表现，彰显着卫冕冠军的底蕴。上一场面对梦想队，他们在末节打出窒息防守，仅让对手得到 13 分，完成逆转好戏，约内斯库 34 分 7 篮板 5 助攻的全能表现与斯图尔特 23 分的稳定输出，辅以内线核心琼斯回归贡献的 10 分 10 篮板，看似无懈可击。但深入分析便会发现隐患：球队近三场比赛的末节失分分别为 18 分、15 分、13 分，防守强度的阶段性提升反而暴露了前三节的松懈，这种 "后程发力" 的模式面对状态回暖的水星时，可能因开局挖坑过大而陷入被动。

更值得警惕的是自由人的进攻效率波动。尽管场均得分高达 94.3 分，但上一场面对梦想队时，球队命中率仅为 43.2%，三分球 25 中 8，若不是梦想队末节 11 投 3 中的低迷，逆转剧本未必上演。约内斯库与斯图尔特的双核驱动固然强大，但角色球员的稳定性不足 —— 除首发五虎外，替补席场均得分仅 22.7 分，当水星队采取针对性包夹时，自由人的第二阵容能否提供火力支持尚存疑问。

水星队虽面临背靠背作战的体能考验，但近期状态回暖的迹象显著。球队在人员齐整度上迎来利好，随着托马斯、麦克等核心球员回归，攻防体系逐渐完善。上一场面对太阳队，水星队即便在体能劣势下仍能掌控节奏，展现出老牌劲旅的调整能力 —— 球队通过加快攻防转换速度，将太阳队拖入快节奏对决，最终以 10 分优势取胜，此役水星队快攻得分达 21 分，利用太阳队 14 次失误转化 18 分，这种 "以快制慢" 的战术思路，恰好克制自由人习惯的阵地战节奏。

综上所述，我更加看好水星可以守住指数！

原文：

The dominance of the Libertadores this season is beyond doubt, with a record of 10 wins and 1 loss and a record of 6 wins at home, showcasing the heritage of defending champions. In the last game against the Dream Team, they played a suffocating defense in the final quarter, only allowing the opponent to score 13 points, completing a comeback show. Yonescu's all-around performance of 34 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists, coupled with Stuart's stable output of 23 points, and the 10 points and 10 rebounds contributed by the return of the core player Jones, seemed impeccable. But in-depth analysis reveals hidden dangers: the team has lost 18 points, 15 points, and 13 points in the last three games, and the phased increase in defensive strength has exposed the laxity in the first three quarters. This "late game power" mode may be put in a passive position when facing Mercury, whose state is recovering, due to digging too many holes at the beginning.

What is even more alarming is the fluctuation of the attacking efficiency of free individuals. Despite averaging 94.3 points per game, in the last game against the Dream Team, the team's shooting percentage was only 43.2%, with 8 out of 25 three-point attempts. If it weren't for the Dream Team's lackluster performance of 11 out of 3 in the final quarter, the reversal script might not have been staged. The dual core drive of Yonescu and Stewart is certainly strong, but the stability of the role players is insufficient - except for the starting Five Tigers, the average score on the bench is only 22.7 points per game. When the Mercury team adopts a targeted package, it is still uncertain whether the second lineup of the free agents can provide firepower support.

Although the Mercury team is facing physical challenges in back-to-back battles, there are significant signs of improvement in their recent form. The team has received positive news in terms of personnel consistency, with the return of core players such as Thomas and Mike, and the gradual improvement of the offensive and defensive system. In the last game against the Suns, the Mercury team was able to control the pace even though they were physically disadvantaged, demonstrating the adjustment ability of an old powerhouse - the team accelerated the speed of offensive and defensive transitions, dragged the Suns into a fast-paced confrontation, and ultimately won with a 10 point advantage. In this game, the Mercury team scored 21 points in a fast break and converted 18 points from the Suns' 14 mistakes. This tactical thinking of "using fast to slow down" perfectly restrained the free agent's habitual battlefield rhythm.

Overall, I am more optimistic that Mercury can hold onto the index!